This week, the world watched as Russian President Vladimir Putin stood shoulder-to-shoulder with some of the globe’s most influential leaders in Beijing. The message was unmistakable, and it went far beyond the battlefields of Ukraine: Moscow is not isolated, it has powerful friends, and together, they are ready to challenge the established international order.
For more than three years, Russia has waged a brutal and costly war against Ukraine – a conflict Putin once envisioned as a swift takeover. Yet, without the unwavering support of nations like China and India providing crucial financial lifelines, Iranian weapons, and even, to a lesser extent, North Korean manpower, Russia’s ability to sustain such a ferocious fight would be critically diminished. The recent summit provided a stark visual of the very alliances enabling this prolonged aggression.
Beyond Ukraine: A New World Order in the Making?
But the symbolism emanating from Beijing went far beyond the immediate context of the Ukraine war. The leaders gathered – China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian, and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un – may not always see eye-to-eye or even harbor much affection for one another. What unites them, however, is a shared perception: the opportunity of a lifetime to end decades of Western dominance on the global stage.
As Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), aptly put it, Russia is “trying to demonstrate that even though it has been isolated from the Western world, it still has partners and allies which are economically strong countries… And this isolation doesn‘t mean that the Russian economy will crumble or that Russia will be unable to sustain its war effort.”
For Europe, the visuals were a stark and troubling reminder. Years of efforts to isolate Russia and starve its economy have been met with a defiant resurgence of new alliances. Compounding this, the continent is grappling with the unsettling notion that the United States, particularly under a potential “America First” agenda, may no longer be the steadfast ally it once was. Europe, already battling internal demons like surging nationalism and economic pressures, suddenly finds itself in the firing line, forced to rethink its entire security architecture.
The Unraveling of the Post-Cold War Order
The international order that emerged after the Cold War, largely shaped by Western democracies, is clearly at risk of unraveling. With the US retreating from the global stage and Europe battling its own challenges, countries like Russia, China, and India, long uncomfortable with a US-dominated world, have seen an undeniable opening.
As John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, observed, “The established dominance of the Western alliance in international affairs is receding, and they see the opportunity to start to, in a serious way, re-engineer the international system.”
Pragmatism Over Principle
Crucially, these burgeoning alliances are not necessarily born of deep ideological kinship or mutual affection. Analysts highlight that China’s and India’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is dominated by pragmatism. While consistently professing neutrality, both nations have provided critical financial lifelines to Moscow. They happily stepped in when Western sanctions on Russian oil created an opportunity for cheaper energy supplies.
But it’s not simply about the money. While neither China nor India seeks a direct confrontation with the West, both are content to see Russia pushing an anti-Western agenda, which aligns with their own strategic interests in a more multi-polar world.
Even former US President Donald Trump, known for his direct style, seemed to grasp the significance of the gathering, sending a message to Xi Jinping: “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”
The gatherings in Beijing this week laid bare the accelerating transformation of global power dynamics. Putin’s powerful friends are not just helping him prolong a war; they are actively working to reshape the global chessboard. The era of unchallenged Western leadership is giving way to a more multi-polar, and potentially more volatile, world – a reality Europe, and indeed the entire West, must now confront head-on.
